GAIN Cost Forecasting and Business Modelling to Pilot Small/Medium Scale Wheat Flour Fortification Jobs in Ethiopia
GAIN Cost Forecasting and Business Modelling to Pilot Small/Medium Scale Wheat Flour Fortification Jobs in Ethiopia
About GainThe Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) is a Swiss-based foundation launched at the UN in 2002 to tackle the human suffering caused by malnutrition.
Working with both governments and businesses, we aim to transform food systems so that they deliver more nutritious food for all people.
At GAIN, we believe that everyone in the world should have access to nutritious and safe food. We work to understand and deliver specific solutions to the daily challenge of food insecurity faced by poor people.
By understanding that there is no “one-size-fits-all” model, we develop alliances and build tailored programmes, using a variety of flexible models and approaches.
We build alliances between governments, local and global businesses, and civil society to deliver sustainable improvements at scale.
We are part of a global network of partners working together to create sustainable solutions to malnutrition.
Through alliances, we provide technical, financial and policy support to key participants in the food system. We use specific learning, evidence of impact, and results of projects and programmes to shape and influence the actions of others.
Background
Over two billion people, mainly living in Asia and Africa, are affected by malnutrition. One of the most critical forms of malnutrition is micronutrient deficiency, or a lack of the essential vitamins and minerals required for healthy growth, development, and function.
Children and women of reproductive age are most often affected, with children suffering irreversible damage such as decreased cognitive development potential and pregnant women at risk of increased maternal mortality.
Micronutrient deficiency has multiple underlying causes but is most directly affected by narrow diets of energy-dense staple foods that lack micronutrients (refined cereal grains, rice and cassava).
One of the most rapid, cost-effective and directly impactful strategies to reach hundreds of millions to combat micronutrient malnutrition is to fortify staple grains and condiments with vitamins and minerals – this process is done through the addition of Vitamin and Mineral Premix or straight fortificants (either a Vitamin or Mineral) to a food vehicle, e.g. wheat flour, maize flour, edible oil . GAIN has, over the past 15 years, mobilised partnerships to catalyse food fortification programmes in over 30 countries
One of our programs in Ethiopia is supporting food fortification.
Food fortification is one of the key strategies endorsed by the Government of Ethiopia to reduce micronutrient deficiencies.
GAIN is working with Government, private sectors and non-government organizations on wheat and oil fortification.
As part of the fortification program, piloting wheat flour fortification at small and medium millers level is one of the initiative to understand the challenges of the millers and propose sustainable business for wheat millers.
The major objective of this study is to understand the challenges of millers and develop pilot business model for wheat flour fortification.
Scope of Work
The successful applicant shall report to GAIN, under an agreed work plan, to undertake tasks that will include, the following:
Understanding and documenting the costing structure of wheat flour and factors that affect the cost.
Please provide a detailed breakdown of the cost of production clearly identifying the key cost drivers
What are the current average prices and
margins for wheat flour?
Government subsidized wheat
Own procured commercial wheat – how do the prices compare with large scale wheat producers for both fortified and non-fortified wheat flour?
Analyse the incremental cost of fortifying wheat flour ; together with factors that reflect the interaction of demand and supply, such as the anticipated impact of the increased costs due to fortification on the price of wheat flour and on wheat flour purchasing behaviors:
Impact of fortification costs (premix, QA/QC) on margins for subsidised wheat where the price is controlled by the government.
Impact of fortification costs on wheat sourced from the open market
Proposed different options of business models to enable sustainable what flour fortification by wheat millers including but not limited to the following:
Input supplies for fortification
Fortification processing capacity building
Based on an analysis of cost data from (A) above, recommendations for cost mitigation and efficiencies with a view to ensuring that fortification is cost neutral to the extent possible or the additional costs are minimal/insignificant.
Suggestions on “targeted” demand creation activities including market segments to be pursued (e.g. social safety net programs, institutional markets etc)
To provide a roadmap for the implementation of the proposed business models including potential costs.
Risks associated with the business models
What are the main risks associated with each of the proposed models?
What mitigation plans would work to manage the risks?
Assess interests and motivations of the millers to fortify their wheat
Given wheat fortification is still voluntary in Ethiopia (as opposed to mandatory in several countries in Africa), why would the millers be willing to fortify?
What incentives, if any, would be required from the government?
Proposal should contain outline of the study/key elements of the study including Metrology of the study.
Develop a detailed study protocol (including detailed methodology and justification, sampling plan (where applicable), and data analysis plan) and data collection tools for review and approval by GAIN
Deliverables
Excel Sheet with Full Financial Models
Annotations and/or instructions enabling another user to replicate and/or adapt the model
Detailed narrative report covering:
Commentary of financial models/data
Proposed models: including motivations and risks associated with the models
Recommendations for implementation of the business models
Report formats – word document and PowerPoint presentation
Reporting – in person meeting or by video-conference debrief with GAIN depending on circumstances with COVID
Timeline
The timeline for completion of all aspects of the Scope of Work and submission of deliverables is by 20th December 2020.
Job Requirements
Qualification and Experience
The Candidate consultant /consulting firm should at least meet the following:
MA degree or solid understanding/experience in Business & Finance or relevant field of study.
Extensive experience in conducting market analysis and business plan development is essential.
Previous experience in developing solutions/business models targeting bottom of the pyramid consumers a distinct advantage.
Knowledge of fortification is advantageous/desirable.
Expertise in financial modelling and forecasting is essential.
Track record in similar studies.
How to Apply
This section addresses the process for responding to this solicitation. Applicants are encouraged to download and review the detail Terms Of Reference (TOR) here RFP cost forecasting and modeling milling Nov 13 dead line.pdf
prior to completing their responses.
Contact
Please direct all inquires and other communication to
atadele@gainhealth.org and ggebremedhin@gainhealth.org
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